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Website visits can predict angler presence using machine learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding and predicting recreational fishing activity is important for sustainable fisheries management. However, traditional methods of measuring fishing pressure, such as surveys, can be costly and limited in both time and spatial extent. Predictive models that relate fishing activity to environmental or economic factors typically rely on historical data, which often restricts their spatial applicability due to data scarcity. In this study, high-resolution angler-generated data from an online platform and easily accessible auxiliary data were tested to predict daily boat presence and aerial counts of boats at almost 200 lakes over five years in Ontario, Canada. Lake-information website visits alone enabled predicting daily angler boat presence with 78% accuracy. While incorporating additional environmental, socio-ecological, weather and angler-generated features into machine learning models did not remarkably improve prediction performance of boat presence, they were substantial for the prediction of boat counts. Models achieved an R2 of up to 0.77 at known lakes included in the model training, but they performed poorly for unknown lakes (R2 = 0.21). The results demonstrate the value of integrating angler-generated data from online platforms into predictive models and highlight the potential of machine learning models to enhance fisheries management.


Frustratingly Simple Prompting-based Text Denoising

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces a novel perspective on the automated essay scoring (AES) task, challenging the conventional view of the ASAP dataset as a static entity. Employing simple text denoising techniques using prompting, we explore the dynamic potential within the dataset. While acknowledging the previous emphasis on building regression systems, our paper underscores how making minor changes to a dataset through text denoising can enhance the final results. Text denoising is a crucial step in natural language processing (NLP) and text analysis tasks (Sun & Jiang, 2019; Xian et al., 2021). One of its major applications is in optical character recognition (OCR).


Enhancing Financial Data Visualization for Investment Decision-Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Navigating the intricate landscape of financial markets requires adept forecasting of stock price movements. This paper delves into the potential of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for predicting stock dynamics, with a focus on discerning nuanced rise and fall patterns. Leveraging a dataset from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the study incorporates multiple features to enhance LSTM's capacity in capturing complex patterns. Visualization of key attributes, such as opening, closing, low, and high prices, aids in unraveling subtle distinctions crucial for comprehensive market understanding. The meticulously crafted LSTM input structure, inspired by established guidelines, incorporates both price and volume attributes over a 25-day time step, enabling the model to capture temporal intricacies. A comprehensive methodology, including hyperparameter tuning with Grid Search, Early Stopping, and Callback mechanisms, leads to a remarkable 53% improvement in predictive accuracy. The study concludes with insights into model robustness, contributions to financial forecasting literature, and a roadmap for real-time stock market prediction. The amalgamation of LSTM networks, strategic hyperparameter tuning, and informed feature selection presents a potent framework for advancing the accuracy of stock price predictions, contributing substantively to financial time series forecasting discourse.


Multi-User MultiWOZ: Task-Oriented Dialogues among Multiple Users

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While most task-oriented dialogues assume conversations between the agent and one user at a time, dialogue systems are increasingly expected to communicate with multiple users simultaneously who make decisions collaboratively. To facilitate development of such systems, we release the Multi-User MultiWOZ dataset: task-oriented dialogues among two users and one agent. To collect this dataset, each user utterance from MultiWOZ 2.2 was replaced with a small chat between two users that is semantically and pragmatically consistent with the original user utterance, thus resulting in the same dialogue state and system response. These dialogues reflect interesting dynamics of collaborative decision-making in task-oriented scenarios, e.g., social chatter and deliberation. Supported by this data, we propose the novel task of multi-user contextual query rewriting: to rewrite a task-oriented chat between two users as a concise task-oriented query that retains only task-relevant information and that is directly consumable by the dialogue system. We demonstrate that in multi-user dialogues, using predicted rewrites substantially improves dialogue state tracking without modifying existing dialogue systems that are trained for single-user dialogues. Further, this method surpasses training a medium-sized model directly on multi-user dialogues and generalizes to unseen domains.


Unsupervised Dialogue Topic Segmentation with Topic-aware Utterance Representation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dialogue Topic Segmentation (DTS) plays an essential role in a variety of dialogue modeling tasks. Previous DTS methods either focus on semantic similarity or dialogue coherence to assess topic similarity for unsupervised dialogue segmentation. However, the topic similarity cannot be fully identified via semantic similarity or dialogue coherence. In addition, the unlabeled dialogue data, which contains useful clues of utterance relationships, remains underexploited. In this paper, we propose a novel unsupervised DTS framework, which learns topic-aware utterance representations from unlabeled dialogue data through neighboring utterance matching and pseudo-segmentation. Extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets (i.e., DialSeg711 and Doc2Dial) demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms the strong baseline methods. For reproducibility, we provide our code and data at:https://github.com/AlibabaResearch/DAMO-ConvAI/tree/main/dial-start.